U.S. Must Avoid the Trap

First off, you shouldn't read this because I truly, clearly don't know what I'm talking about. I mean, France? Who thought that was a good idea? Clearly, I'm an idiot. But, if you wish, feel free to read on.
Today's United States game against Group B leader Slovenia has trouble written all over it. There's real temptation to believe that the U.S. got through its toughest game with a huge point and should have smooth sailing into the second round. But slow down. Slovenia is the one with three points, and even though it didn't look very good in its win over Algeria, hey, it did what it had to do and is the driver's seat. The United States can't afford to settle for a tie this time, while Slovenia would be happy enough to walk away with a point. That would put Slovenia and (assuming it beats Algeria today) England with four points and the United States with one. That's no good, as England and Slovenia would have little motivation to go hard at each other in the final game of group play.
So, is this a must-win for the United States? Definitely. Can the United States win today? Definitely.
But it's going to be tough. Slovenia is a strong, physical team with a solid defense and the United States has struggled against teams that are this organized. On top of that, Slovenia relies on an outstanding counterattack, and that's something that could be a real problem for the American defense.
The United States must avoid the temptation to score early and often. It doesn't need an impressive, one-sided victory, it just needs a victory. The Americans have to control the ball better than it did against England, and it won't be easy, as the physical Slovenian defense loves getting tough and breaking up attacks. That means the U.S. will have to send in swarms on offense and needs to take some chances, taking cracks on some long shots and maybe following up the rebounds for easy goals.
On defense, midfielders Michael Bradley and Ricardo Clark are going to be especially important in slowing down Slovenia's Robert Koren and Valter Birsa, who lead their team's counterattack.
Maybe most importantly, the United States has to come out stronger than it did against England, and maintain that focus throughout. Bob Bradley has to make the right choices, get the right personnel on the field (Jose Torres, anyone?) and make the right adjustments.
Here's saying that the U.S. rises to the occassion and picks up a huge win, taking a big step in moving on to the second round. I'll take the United States, 2-1. But don't bet on it.