Who Needs What?

What a bizarre World Cup it's been. An incredible amount of close games, some top clubs (Italy, France, England, Ivory Coast) all struggling to even advance out of group play. Portugal went from zero goals in its first game to seven in its second. Switzerland stuns Spain, then falls to surprise Group H leader (and Allende family favorite) Chile. Unfortunately, the reffing is getting a lot of attention. I felt like refs did a great job early on, but right around Germany's second game, followed by the U.S.-Slovenia game, things started to go downhill.
All the close matches have made these third and final group stage games (starting tomorrow) fascinating. There really are some marquee teams that could fail to advance. A disastrous tournament by African teams could reach its low point if none of the squads advance out of group play, which could easily happen. South American teams have not lost a match, which goes to show where the best soccer is played.
So, I've decided to try to break down, in as simple terms as possible, what each team has to do to advance to the knockout stage. The final group stage games are played simultaneously (for each group) so as to not allow teams to take it easy or conspire to play for a particular result. So, get your remotes ready or find a second nearby TV to monitor action on.
Remember, tie breakers are as follows:
1. Goal differential
2. Total goals scored
3. Head-to-head (if three teams are tied, it's determined by the above two criteria)
4. The mysterious draw of lots

Group A
Uruguay

• Wins the group with a win or tie against Mexico
• Can advance with a loss if France and South Africa tie or if the winner of France-South Africa doesn't make up tiebreakers.

Mexico

• Wins the group with a win over Uruguay.
• Can advance with a tie against Uruguay.
• It can also advance with a loss if France and South Africa tie or the winner of France-South Africa doesn't make up tiebreakers.

France

• Can advance only if it beats South Africa and makes up tiebreakers against the loser of the Uruguay-Mexico match.
• It can not advance if it ties, or if Mexico-Uruguay ties.

South Africa

• Can advance only if it beats France and makes up tiebreakers against the loser of the Uruguay-Mexico match.
• It can not advance if it ties, or if Mexico-Uruguay ties.

Group B

Argentina

• Advances with a win or a tie vs. Greece.
• Will also advance if South Korea loses or ties Nigeria.
• It can advance with a loss as long as South Korea and Greece don't make up tiebreakers.

South Korea

• Advances with a win over Nigeria as long as Greece doesn't either win by a greater margin than South Korea does or Greece and South Korea win by the same margin and Greece doesn't score two or more goals than South Korea does.
• Will also advance with a tie over Nigeria and a tie or loss by Greece.

Greece

• Will advance with a win over Argentina and a loss or tie by South Korea against Nigeria.
• Will advance if it wins by a greater margin than South Korea does.
• Will advance if it wins by the same margin as South Korea and scores two or more goals than South Korea does.
• Will advance with a tie if South Korea loses to Nigeria.
• Will advance if it wins by three or more goals.

Nigeria

• Can only advance if it beats South Korea and Argentina beats Greece.

Group C

United States

• Advances with a win against Algeria.
• Can advance with a tie if Slovenia-England tie and England doesn't outscore the United States by two or more goals.
• Will also advance with a tie if England loses to Slovenia.

Slovenia

• Advances with a win or a tie against England.
• Can advance with a loss if the United States ties against Algeria.
• Can advance with a loss if Algeria beats the United States but doesn't make up tiebreakers.

England

• Advances with a win over Slovenia.
• Can advance with a tie and a United States-Algeria tie if it outscores the United States by at least three goals.

Algeria

• Advances with a win over the United States if Slovenia wins or ties England.
• Advances with a win over the United States and an England win over Slovenia if it makes up tiebreakers against Slovenia.

Group D

Ghana

• Advances with a win or a tie against Germany.
• Can advance with a loss if Australia-Serbia tie if Serbia doesn't make up tiebreakers.
• Can advance with a loss and an Australia win over Serbia if Australia doesn't make up tiebrakers.

Germany

• Advances with a win over Ghana.
• Can advance with a tie and an Australia-Serbia tie if Serbia doesn't make up tiebreakers.
• Can advance with a tie and an Australia win if Australia doesn't make up tiebreakers.

Serbia

• Advances with a win over Australia.
• Can advance with a tie and a Ghana win over Germany.
• Can advance with a tie and a Ghana-Germany tie if it makes up tiebreakers on Germany.

Australia

• Advances with a win over Serbia and a Ghana win over Germany.
• Advances with a win over Serbia and a Germany win over Ghana if it can make up tiebreakers against Ghana.
• Advances with a win over Serbia and a Germany-Ghana tie if it can make up tiebreakers against Germany.

Group E

Netherlands

• Has already advanced. It will win the group if it beats or ties Cameroon.
• Can win the group with a loss if Japan and Denmark tie.
• Can win the group with a loss if the winner of Japan-Denmark can't make up tiebreakers.

Japan

• Advances with a win over Denmark.
• Can win the group if it beats Denmark, Netherlands loses to Cameroon and Japan makes up tiebreakers against Netherlands.

Denmark

• Advances with a win over Japan.
• Can win the group by beating Japan, Netherlands loses to Cameroon and Denmark makes up tiebreakers against Netherlands.

Cameroon

• No chance, has been eliminated.

Group F

Paraguay

• Advances with a win or a tie against New Zealand.
• Can advance with a loss if Italy and Slovakia tie.
• Can advance with a loss if Slovakia beats Italy but doesn't make up tiebreakers against Paraguay.

Italy

• Advances with a win over Slovakia.
• Advances with a tie and a New Zealand loss to Paraguay.
• Advances with a tie and a New Zealand-Paraguay tie if Italy outscores New Zealand.

New Zealand

• Advances if it beats Paraguay.
• Can advance with a tie and an Italy-Slovakia tie if New Zealand outscores Italy.

Slovakia

• Advances with a win over Italy and a Paraguay win or tie against New Zealand.
• Advances with a win over Italy and a New Zealand win over Paraguay if it can make up tiebreakers against Paraguay.

Group G

Brazil

• Has already advanced.
• Will win the group with a win or tie against Portugal.

Portugal

• Advances with a win or tie against Brazil.
• Can advance with a loss if Ivory Coast loses to North Korea and fails to make up the goal differential with Portugal.

Ivory Coast

• Advances with a win against North Korea, a Portugal loss to Brazil and if it can make up goal differential against Portugal.

North Korea

• No chance, has been eliminated.

Group H

Chile

• Will advance with a win or tie against Spain. It will also win the group in this scenario.
• Can advance with a loss if Switzerland loses or ties Honduras.
• Can advance with a loss and a Switzerland win over Honduras if it can maintain its tiebreaker lead over Switzerland.

Spain

• Advances with a win over Chile.
• Advances with a tie against Chile and a Switzerland tie or loss to Honduras.
• Can advance with a loss if Honduras beats Switzerland and Spain maintains its tiebreakers over Honduras and Switzerland.

Switzerland

• Advances with a win over Honduras and a Chile win or tie against Spain.
• Advances with a win over Honduras and a Spain win over Chile if Switzerland can make up tiebreakers against Chile.
• Advances with a tie against Honduras and a Chile win over Spain.
• Can advance with a loss if Spain loses to Chile and Switzerland holds tiebreakers over Spain and Honduras.

Honduras

• Advances with a win over Switzerland and a Chile win over Spain and if it makes up tiebreakers over Spain and Switzerland.