Now What?

I'm not going to talk much about the United States' 2-2 draw with Slovenia in this post, mostly because thinking about the no-goal call gives me a headache. But it was exciting to see the Americans rally and get that point. Without it, they'd basically be done. I was in a great back-and-forth with several friends on Facebook after the game which I'll recount in a later post about the game, but this will focus instead on what happens next.
I've had a few people ask me just what the scenarios are now. What does the U.S. have to do to move on? It's a bit complicated, but I'll try to explain the best I can.
Here's the standings, with points (remember, 3 for a win, 1 for a tie) and goal differential, goals for and goals against:
Slovenia 4 points, +1, 3-2
United States 2 points, 0, 3-3
England 2 points, 0, 1-1
Algeria, 1 point, -1, 0-1

To put it simply, if the United States beats Algeria on Wednesday at 7 a.m., it moves on to the second round. It can move on with a tie, if England also also ties and the United States maintains its goal differential over England, which right now is at +2 (the U.S. has 3 goals, England has 1). That means England can't score three more goals against Slovenia than the U.S. does against Algeria. Make sense?

Here's how the tiebreakers work:
1. Total points (not goals, points)
2. Total goal difference
3. Total goals scored
4. Points between the tied teams (basically head-to-head result)
5. Goal difference in games between the tied teams (also basically head-to-head)
6. Total goals scored between the tied teams (this is the scenario I talk about above)
7. Drawing of lots by FIFA.

What the heck does drawing of lots by FIFA mean? No one really knows (seriously). It's never been said how FIFA determines who moves on in that scenario. It could be a flip of the coin for all we know. Let's hope it doesn't get there, though.

So, here's how teams can move on.

I talked about the U.S.: Either win, or tie, have England tie, and maintain the two-goal advantage over England.
England advances if: It beats Slovenia, or it ties and outscores the United States by three goals (basically, England and Slovenia tie 4-4 and the U.S. and Algeria tie 1-1, giving England a 5 goal to 4 goal advantage over the U.S.).
Slovenia advances if: It beats or ties England, or it loses and the U.S. ties Algeria, or it loses and Algeria wins, as long as Algeria can't make up all the tie breakers over Slovenia, which would be a miracle.
Algeria advances with a win and a win or a tie by Slovenia, or a win and a Slovenia loss to England, if Algeria can make up tiebreakers over Slovenia, which, as I said, would be a miracle.
Don't worry, I won't be testing you, but hopefully it makes sense.
So, the only way England and the United States can both advance is if they both win, which could well happen.
The goofiest scenario would be if the United States and England both tie and England scores exactly two more points than the U.S. So, the U.S. ties 0-0 and England ties 2-2. That would put England and the U.S. even on all tiebreakers, leading to the mysterious drawing of lots. Let's hope that doesn't happen.
So, basically, just hope the United States wins. That would keep everything simple. Whatever happens, it's going to be a fascinating Wednesday.
Oh yeah, both games are at 7 a.m. on Wednesday, so you'll have to have two TVs running to keep up with the live action.